NICK'S PIX: $UPERBOWL $UNDAY

Many people write and ask if I ever post my NFL picks, no doubt salivating at the prospect of taking the opposites. In honor of XXXVIII, how can I resist? But first, the prospectus that comes with the pill. Super Sunday is to handicapping what New Year's eve is to drinking: Amateur night. The Superbowl looms so large in our culture, the natural urge is to play it, and play it big. Add in a shot of sobering horror—it's the last real game you're gonna see for a long, long time—and the natural tendency is to take those inflated unit values and pump them up to staggering proportions.

The advice here is to view this match up like any other, thendecide: Do you really have a strong angle, or are you caught up in the sheer enormity of it all, and jacking up your dollar values just because it's there?

My advice is to stay sane, and if you're looking to heal a whole season's worth of woe with one game, get ready to contemplate the saddest thing on earth: A desperation, get-healthy reach on the Pro Bowl. Schtoink!

Okay, enough cautionary yammering. You're gonna do what you're gonna do, so read on. If nothing else, just promise me you're gonna avoid those lame-o grid boards—what I like to call football's answer to pin the tail of the donkey. Are we kids, or what?

THE TOTAL: Buyer Beware

The OVER/UNDER on this one looks nefariously right as it hovers between 38 and 37, but be mindful of the facts: Super Sundays tend to be higher scoring affairs than normal games. In fact, if you look at the past 13 Superbowl's, only one would have made it under this game's current line—and that was Pats-Rams at a push-nudging 37.

Playmakers rise to the occasion. The nervous make mistakes. Big plays happen. If late action moves this line down, go over. If not, buyer beware of the under—it's too logical.

FOR THOSE WHO ARE PROPOSITION INCLINED

If you have a deep seated need to bet propositions, the total on the number of sacks in the game is 4.5: 5 sacks is make-able, and if either team falls into a two touchdown hole, the over's in the bag, the bag's in the river.

THE GAME

The Panthers are the definitive profile of your modern day Superbowl Champions. All you have to do is take a look at the trend of the last three winners:

• Long shot underdogs, before the playoffs even begin
• Dominant Defense
• Low-tech, mistake-averse offense
• Getting substantial points

Can you say Ravens, Patriots, Buccaneers?

On the strength of that alone, you'd have been smart to play them to get here before the playoff's started, like we did.

Some other things I like:

• All year long, the Panthers have been coverliscious when they're getting points. They thrive as dogs. They keep games close, and their offense is picking up steam.
• The Panthers have an edge on both sides of the line—this is not getting the play it deserves.
• The Colts offense was a hi-tech, intricate, dare I say delicate machine. It reminds me of the Mars probe. So many little things can go wrong, and all of a sudden it isn't sending any pictures back—a perfect canvas for Belichick's mind games and strategies. The Panthers are a different animal. It feels like hubris even writing this about a Belichick scheme, but how do you flummox an offense that refuses to trade in mystery, and keeps things "we're gonna run it down your throat" simple?
• Look for more of that modified wishbone Carolina unveiled against the Eagles, and more helmet-to-helmet contact than the Pat linebackers are accustomed to.
• Let's not forget who got here by winning as underdogs, on the road.

No disrespect for New England, they earned the right to be the favorites in this game, but I've ridden Carolina through the playoffs, and I have no intention of getting off now. They have to play flawless football for 60 minutes, but I think Fox has 'em loose and lively and ready to go. I'd love to see them getting the 13 points the Pats got versus Kurt Warner back in the day, but I'll sit here and keep my eye on the line. If it budges above 7, I say make your move. If it lingers at 7, make a much more cautious move.

Take the Panthers, and the points,

And keep livin' the dream.... Nick